Score 6.2 (out of 10): AMERICAN AIRLINE earnings tend to move the stock -3.3% lower, just 1 month later

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What’s Going On Here?

AMERICAN AIRLINE will announce quarterly earnings on January 20. ‘Wall Street’ analysts expect Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -1.699. Based on option market volatilities, the stock could move by 3.79% in either direction, 1 day after the earnings announcement.

Why Now?

After the previous 10 quarterly earnings announcements, the stock returned -3.3% one month after the announcement date. With 40% of those events showing only positive returns. Based on our number crunching models, this signal received a high score of 6.2 and is statistically relevant.

What’s This Company About?

AMERICAN AIRLINE is in the Airlines business. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth -1.5% less (average). Ticker symbol: aal US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 18.64 (-3.3%) has been reached. AMERICAN AIRLINE traded with last price of 19.28.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-2.8% after 2021:Q2, -3.9% after 2021:Q1, 9% after 2020:Q4, -6.1% after 2020:Q3, -3% after 2020:Q2, -22.4% after 2020:Q1, 2.6% after 2019:Q4, 9.5% after 2019:Q3, -16.3% after 2019:Q2, 0.5% after 2019:Q1.

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameAmerican Airlines
ViewDown
Star (1 to 10)6.2
Target-3.3%
Time1 month
Hit Rate60%

Popular Insights:

  • This insight was generated with data available up to January 10, 2022.

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