Score 7.1 (out of 10): Bitcoin sets up for +24% rally in 2 months


What’s Going On Here?

MicroStrategy’s bitcoin holding have increased by another $400mln, bringing its total value to $3.5bn (121k bitcoins) with average entry price close to 30k (vs. 57k currently). Milder than initially thought symptoms of omicron covid variant caused a rally in risk assets.

Why Now?

Bitcoin has triggered a new technical analysis ‘rally reversal’ signal. During similar occasions, Bitcoin shares had a median return of +24%, over the following 2 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 6 of those showing positive returns (60%). This buy signal for Bitcoin received a high score of 7.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-November-30 with last price of 57915.76.

What’s This Cryptocurrency About?

Bitcoin is the largest crypto currency by market cap. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 71821.06 (+24%) has been reached. Based on Bitcoin’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 50919.66 (last price at 57915.76), which is equivalent to a -12.1% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

48.2% (September-2021), 59% (July-2021), -15.6% (June- 2021), -32.9% (April-2021), 24.1% (September-2020), 28.2% (July-2020), 45.2% (March-2020), 23.9% (December- 2019), -6.9% (October-2019), -1.8% (August-2019).

Historical Chart:



Star (1 to 10)7.1
Time2 months
Hit Rate60%

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