Score 7.2 (out of 10): Bitcoin sets up for +21.2% rally in 2 months

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What’s Going On Here?

Bitcoin’s correction could have come to an end as overall risk sentiment seems to improve. Risk assets appear to have digested the Fed’s recent hawkish comments. Bitcoin’s recent 68,991 top (Nov 10) coincided with the coin’s Taproot upgrade (Nov 12) – it’s first major upgrade since 2017.

Why Now?

Bitcoin has triggered a new technical analysis ‘rally reversal’ signal. During similar occasions, Bitcoin shares had a median return of +21.2%, over the following 2 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 7 of those showing positive returns (70%). This buy signal for Bitcoin received a high score of 7.2 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-December-21 with last price of 48,747.

What’s This Company About?

Bitcoin is a cryto currency. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 59,067 (+21.2%) has been reached. Based on Bitcoin’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 41,816 (last price at 48,747), which is equivalent to a -14.2% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

48.2% (September-2021), 4.8% (June-2021), -32% (April-2021), 24.1% (September-2020), 28.2% (July-2020), 45.2% (March-2020), 23.9% (December-2019), -6.9% (October-2019), -1.8% (August-2019), 18.4% (February-2019).

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameBITCOIN
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.2
Target+21.2%
Time2 month
Hit Rate70%

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