Score 7.2 (out of 10): FORD MOTOR CO sets up for +5.2% rally in 3 months

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What’s Going On Here?

FORD is ramping up its Mustang Mach-E output – the company’s first mainstream all-electric vehicle which is expected to reach more than 200,000 units per year. The Mach-E won Car and Driver’s first EV of the Year award, beating 10 other EVs, including three Tesla models.

Why Now?

FORD MOTOR CO has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, FORD MOTOR CO shares had a median return of +5.2%, over the following 3 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 7 of those showing positive returns (70%). This buy signal for FORD MOTOR CO received a high score of 7.2 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-December-13 with last price of 20.43.

What’s This Company About?

FORD MOTOR CO is in the Auto-Cars/Light Trucks business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth -7.5% less (average). Ticker symbol: F US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 3 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 21.49 (+5.2%) has been reached. Based on FORD MOTOR CO’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 18.33 (last price at 20.43), which is equivalent to a -10.3% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

42.9% (May-2020), – 2.5% (March-2020), 9.8% (December-2018), -4.3% (October-2018), -0.1% (March-2018), 1.1% (January-2018), 16.7% (February-2016), 4.4% (September-2015), 9.6% (December-2014), 6% (October-2014).

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameFORD MOTOR CO
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.2
Target+5.2%
Time3 months
Hit Rate70%

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