Score 7.4 (out of 10): Apple’s earnings announcements have moved the stock +4.0% higher

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Insight:

APPLE INC is expected to announce quarterly earnings on October 28. After the previous 10 quarterly earnings announcements, the stock returned 4% one month after the announcement date. With 70% of those events showing positive returns. Based on our number crunching models, this signal received a high score of 7.4 and is statistically relevant.

Details:

NameAPPLE INC
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.4
Target+4.0%
Time1 month
Hit Rate70%

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

0.9% after 2021:Q2, -1.7% after 2021:Q1, 5.9% after 2020:Q4, -1.8% after 2020:Q3, 16.6% after 2020:Q2, 6.8% after 2020:Q1, 4.5% after 2019:Q4, 9.3% after 2019:Q3, -2.7% after 2019:Q2, 1.8% after 2019:Q1

How have we arrived at this insight:

The conditions that led to similar insights previously have just been triggered in the market, making this ‘insight’ relevant right now.

While sorting through the mountains of data, our data engine detected a statistically relevant historical relationship between this ‘insight’ and the asset. Our data engine aims to optimize between statistical relevant relationships (high accuracy), situations that are relevant right now (entry timing) and ideal trade horizon (exit timing).

Based on the statistical significance of previous returns in similar situations, a high score indicates a more statistically relevant expected ‘future’ move for this particular asset. After calculating various scenarios, we found the optimal trade horizon for this particular relationship to be 1 month.

We calculate the median return for those previous situations (median is calculated by taking the ‘middle’ value, the value for which half the observations are larger and half are smaller) to determine the +4.0% estimated target return.

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