Score 7.4 (out of 10): ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL ETF sets up for +8.2% rally in 1 month

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What’s Going On Here?

Investors continue to see a bumpy path for the Brazilian economy as national elections are coming closer. Stock market strategists are calling for +20% upside as risks seem partly priced in.

Why Now?

ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL ETF has reached a new shorter-term high. Previously, during similar occasions, ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL ETF shares had a median return of +8.2%, over the following 1 month – based on 10 historical occasions with 7 of those showing positive returns (70% hit ratio). This buy signal for ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL ETF received a high score of 7.4 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-January-12 with last price of 28.85.

What’s This Company About?

ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL ETF is in the Country Fund-Brazil business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: EWZ .

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 31.22 (+8.2%) has been reached. Based on ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL ETF’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 27.05 (last price at 28.85), which is equivalent to a -6.2% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

10.4% (April-2021), -6.2% (January-2021), 12% (October-2020), 11.5% (May-2020), 5.6% (December-2019), -0.9% (September-2019), 6.1% (May-2019), -8.8% (March-2019), 11.7% (January-2019), 19.7% (September-2018).

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameiShares MSCI Brazil ETF
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.4
Target+8.2%
Time1 month
Hit Rate70%

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