Score 7.5 (out of 10): AMAZON is poised for a +9% rally in 3 months

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What’s Going On Here?

Amazon is holding its second Prime Day shopping event in a year for the first time this week in a bid to boost its flagship ecommerce product and reverse declining sales

Why Now?

AMAZON.COM has reached a new medium term low. Previously, during similar occasions, AMAZON.COM shares had a median return of +9%, over the following 3 months based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80% hit ratio). This buy signal for AMAZON.COM received a high score of 7.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-October-11 with last price of 112.21.

What’s This Asset About?

AMAZON.COM is in the E-Commerce/Products business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: AMZN US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 3 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 122.31 (+9%) has been reached. Based on AMAZON.COM’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 105.91 (last price at 112.21), which is equivalent to a -5.6% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

12.3% (April-2022), -6% (January-2022), 5.4% (February-2021), 53.4% (March-2020), 1.4% (August-2019), 19.3% (December-2018), -4.6% (October-2018), 19.5% (August-2017), 8.8% (November-2016), 9.2% (January-2016).

Historical Chart:

Summary:

NameAMAZON.COM
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.5
Target+9%
Time3 months
Hit Rate80%

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