Score 7.5 (out of 10): NOVARTIS is poised for a +3.8% rally in 2 months


What’s Going On Here?

Jay Bradner, president of the Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research (NIBR), is retiring from the position after seven years in the role, and will be replaced by Merck & Co R&D executive Fiona Marshall.

Why Now?

NOVARTIS AG-SPONSORED ADR has reached a new medium term low. Previously, during similar occasions, NOVARTIS AG-SPONSORED ADR shares had a median return of +3.8%, over the following 2 months based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90% hit ratio). This buy signal for NOVARTIS AG-SPONSORED ADR received a high score of 7.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-September-1 with last price of 80.33.

What’s This Token About?

NOVARTIS AG- SPONSORED ADR is in the Medical-Drugs business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: NOVN SW.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 83.35 (+3.8%) has been reached. Based on NOVARTIS AG-SPONSORED ADR’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 78.63 (last price at 80.33), which is equivalent to a -2.1% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

4% (June-2022), 5.3% (March-2022), 3.5% (November-2021), -7% (September-2021), 3.9% (February-2021), 16.6% (October-2020), 3.6% (July-2020), 3.1% (February-2020), 2.9% (September-2019), 23.1% (April-2019).

Historical Chart:


Star (1 to 10)7.5
Time2 months
Hit Rate90%


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