Score 7.5 (out of 10): PHILLIPS 66 sets up for +7.5% rally in 1 month

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What’s Going On Here?

PHILLIPS 66 is a downstream energy company which has unveiled a $1.9bn capital program for 2022. Philips 66 put aside $992m for sustaining capital and $916m for growth capital. Approximately 45% of growth capital will be used for lower-carbon opportunities.

Why Now?

PHILLIPS 66 has reached a new shorter-term high. Previously, during similar occasions, PHILLIPS 66 shares had a median return of +7.5%, over the following 1 month – based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80% hit ratio). This buy signal for PHILLIPS 66 received a high score of 7.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-December-28 with last price of 73.93.

What’s This Company About?

PHILLIPS 66 is in the Oil Refining&Marketing business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 25.9% more (average). Ticker symbol: PSX US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 79.48 (+7.5%) has been reached. Based on PHILLIPS 66’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 68.13 (last price at 73.93), which is equivalent to a -7.8% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

8.2% (September-2021), 6.8% (May-2021), 16.7% (February-2021), 20.6% (November-2020), -13.6% (August-2020), 21% (April-2020), 1.6% (September-2019), 17.4% (June-2019), -2.6% (March-2019), 3.2% (January- 2019)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NamePHILLIPS 66
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.5
Target+7.5%
Time1 month
Hit Rate80%

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