Score 7.6 (out of 10): FIRST REPUBLIC earnings tend to move the stock 2.8% higher, just 1 month later

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What’s Going On Here?

FIRST REPUBLIC B will announce quarterly earnings on January 14. ‘Wall Street’ analysts expect Earnings Per Share (EPS) of 1.951. Based on option market volatilities, the stock could move by 2.79% in either direction, 1 day after the earnings announcement.

Why Now?

After the previous 10 quarterly earnings announcements, the stock returned 2.8% one month after the announcement date. With 70% of those events showing positive returns. Based on our number crunching models, this signal received a high score of 7.6 and is statistically relevant.

What’s This Company About?

FIRST REPUBLIC B is in the Commer Banks-Western US business. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 9.2% more (average). Ticker symbol: frc US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 209.73 (2.8%) has been reached. FIRST REPUBLIC B traded with last price of 204.06.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-0.6% after 2021:Q2, 8% after 2021:Q1, 0.5% after 2020:Q4, 5.4% after 2020:Q3, 2.6% after 2020:Q2, 7.8% after 2020:Q1, -1% after 2019:Q4, 5.8% after 2019:Q3, -2.6% after 2019:Q2, 1.9% after 2019:Q1.

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameFirst Republic
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.6
Target+2.8%
Time1 month
Hit Rate70%

Popular Insights:

  • This insight was generated with data available up to January 10, 2022.

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