Score 7.9 (out of 10): GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC sets up for +17.5% rally in 1 month

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What’s Going On Here?

The Grayscale Bitcoin ETN is trading at a -34% discount to the Fund’s net-asset-value, theoretically allowing investors to buy Bitcoin at 13k – if the ETN ever converts to and ETF.

Why Now?

GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC has triggered a new price range signal. During similar occasions, GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC shares had a median return of +17.5%, over the following 1 month – based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80%). This buy signal for GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC received a high score of 7.9 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-October-25 with last price of 12.22.

What’s This Asset About?

GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC is in the Closed-end Funds business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: GBTC US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 14.36 (+17.5%) has been reached. Based on GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 11.52 (last price at 12.22), which is equivalent to a -5.7% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

-15.2% (March-2022), 20.1% (October-2021), 15.8% (July-2021), 37% (December-2020), 38.4% (October-2020), 10.2% (July-2020), 18.2% (April-2020), 16.7% (January-2020), -14.9% (October-2019), 32.7% (May-2019).

Historical Chart:

Summary:

NameGrayscale Bitcoin Trust
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.9
Target+17.5%
Time1 month
Hit Rate80%

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