Score 7 (out of 10): FORD MOTOR sets up for +27.2% rally in 3 months

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What’s Going On Here?

Ford customers and dealers are playing a waiting game as the demand for the ‘hottest’ new SUV is very strong but the company fails to keep up with demand. SuperBowl ads featured new EV cars. Ford could remain a beneficiary for years to come.

Why Now?

FORD MOTOR CO has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, FORD MOTOR CO shares had a median return of +27.2%, over the following 3 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for FORD MOTOR CO received a high score of 9 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-February-11 with last price of 17.53.

What’s This Company About?

FORD MOTOR CO is in the Auto-Cars/Light Trucks business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth +34% (average). Ticker symbol: F US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 3 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 22.33 (+27.2%) has been reached. Based on FORD MOTOR CO’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 16.25 (last price at 17.55), which is equivalent to a -7.4% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

2.4% (December-2021), 48.5% (May-2020), -3.9% (March-2020), 22.9% (December-2018), 22.5% (October-2018), 38.5% (March-2018), 38.7% (January-2018), 33.1% (February-2016), 8.6% (September-2015), 31.6% (December-2014).

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameFORD MOTOR CO
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)7.0
Target-10.2%
Time3 months
Hit Rate90%

Popular Insights:

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