Score 8.2 (out of 10): SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST sets up for +5% rally in 3 months


What’s Going On Here?

As we mentioned two weeks ago, the market might have fully priced in the Fed rates hikes as well as the repercussions of the Ukraine conflict. This seems to have been a key driver of equity returns now.

Why Now?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST shares had a median return of +5%, over the following 3 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST received a high score of 8.2 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-March- 24 with last price of 452.21.

What’s This Company About?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST is in the Growth&Income-Large Cap business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: SPY US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 3 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 473 (+5%) has been reached. Based on SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 436.79 (last price at 450.49), which is equivalent to a -3% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

-7.4% (January-2022), 5% (May-2020), 4.8% (March-2020), 5% (December-2018), 5.5% (April-2018), 3.9% (February-2018), 6.2% (October-2015), 9.9% (August-2015), 5.7% (February- 2015), 3.9% (December-2014).

Historical Chart:


Star (1 to 10)8.2
Time3 months
Hit Rate90%


Leave a Reply