Score 8.2 (out of 10): VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF sets up for +5% rally in 1 month


What’s Going On Here?

US Small cap stocks have done nothing for the last 10 months as all the action has been focused on large cap tech stocks. Traditionally, small caps tend to perform better when inflation is rising (as the index tends to have a number of ‘value’ stocks inside) as well as when the US Dollar is stronger – both of these drivers are present currently.

Why Now?

VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF has triggered a new technical analysis ‘rally reversal’ signal. During similar occasions, VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF shares had a median return of +5%, over the following 1 month – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF received a high score of 8.2 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-December-17 with last price of 219.03.

What’s This Company About?

VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF is in the Growth&Income-Small Cap business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: VB US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 230.03 (+5%) has been reached. Based on VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 207.93 (last price at 219.03), which is equivalent to a -5.1% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-5.3% (July-2021), 14.7% (May-2021), 14% (February-2021), 36.2% (December- 2020), 23.1% (September-2020), 19.5% (July-2020), -5.1% (January-2020), 5.6% (November- 2019), 4.5% (August-2019), -4.2% (May-2019).

Historical Chart:



Star (1 to 10)8.2
Time1 month
Hit Rate90%

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