Score 8.3 (out of 10): SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF sets up for +6.8% rally in 1 month


What’s Going On Here?

Zillow forecasts +11% home value growth in 2022, that’s down from a projected +19.5% for 2021 but still very strong. Sellers are still keeping the upper hand with large rentals being in very high demand. Zillow also expects Gen Z’s and Millennials will buy a ‘second home’ before a primary  residence.

Why Now?

SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF has triggered a new technical analysis ‘rally reversal’ signal. During similar occasions, SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF shares had a median return of +6.8%, over the following 1 month – based on 10 historical occasions with 10 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF received a high score of 8.3 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-January-6 with last price of 82.55.

What’s This Company About?

SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF is in the Sector Fund-Real Estate business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: XHB.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 88.17 (+6.8%) has been reached. Based on SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 78.65 (last price at 82.55), which is equivalent to a -4.7% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

9.8% (October-2021), 1.4% (June-2021), 18.9% (March-2021), 8.4% (September-2020), 36.9% (April-2020), 4.8% (December-2019), 5.2% (August-2019), 13.6% (January-2019), 4.5% (October-2018), 3.4% (August-2018).

Historical Chart:



NameSPDR Homebuilders
Star (1 to 10)8.3
Time1 month
Hit Rate100%

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