Score 8.5 (out of 10): Bitcoin poised to seasonally rally by +12.4% during the month of February

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What’s Going On Here?

Russia might be excluded from the global SWIFT transaction system and potentially resulting in a restriction for the country’s citizen to transfer money across Russia’s borders. This has brought back the attention towards an alternative monetary system.

Why Now?

Bitcoin indicates an interesting seasonal (monthly for February) set up. During similar occasions, Bitcoin shares had a median return of +12.4%, over the following 1 month – based on 7 historical occasions with 6 of those showing positive returns (86%). This buy signal for Bitcoin received a high score of 8.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 38,351.

What’s This Company About?

Bitcoin is in the crypto / blockchain business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Risky.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 43,115 (+12.4%) has been reached. Based on Bitcoin’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 35,367 (last price at 38,351), which is equivalent to a -7.8% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

34% (February-2021), -6.7% (February-2020), 11.6% (February-2019), 8% (February-2018), 20.1% (February-2017), 14.8% (February-2016), 12.4% (February-2015)

Historical Chart:

Summary:

NameBitcoin
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.5
Target+12.4%
Time1 month
Hist Rate86%

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