Score 8.5 (out of 10): EBAY poised to seasonally rally by +9.8% during the next 60 days

90

What’s Going On Here?

EBAY will release their quarterly earnings on Feb 3. With a price / earnings ratio (PE) of 16.8x, pretax margins of 33.3% and a recently decline of -17% from the October 2021 highs, the company appears to be at an attractive level.

Why Now?

EBAY INC indicates an interesting 60 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, EBAY INC shares had a median return of +9.8% – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for EBAY INC received a high score of 8.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 64.49.

What’s This Company About?

EBAY INC is in the E-Commerce/Products business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 20.8% more (average). Ticker symbol: EBAY US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 60 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 70.81 (+9.8%) has been reached. Based on EBAY INC’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 60.09 (last price at 64.49), which is equivalent to a -6.8% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

8.8% (January-2022), 4.8% (January-2021), 26.7% (January-2020), 14.5% (January-2019), 10.8% (January-2018), -6% (January-2017), 7.7% (January-2016), 11.1% (January-2015), 2.5% (January-2014), 15.7% (January-2013)

Historical Chart:

———————————————————————

Summary:

NameEbay
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.5
Target+9.8%
Time2 months
Hit Rate90%

Popular Insights:

Leave a Reply