Score 8.5 (out of 10): VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF poised to seasonally rally by +7.2% during the next 60 days

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What’s Going On Here?

SEMICONDUCTOR companies continue to hold up well, while more speculative tech companies are struggling. The VANECK SEMI ETF actually has seen inflows this year. On Jan 5, investors allocated $+333m into this ETF.

Why Now?

VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF indicates an interesting 60 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF shares had a median return of +7.2% – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF received a high score of 8.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 306.2.

What’s This Company About?

VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF is in the Sector Fund-Technology business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: SMH

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 60 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 328.21 (+7.2%) has been reached. Based on VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 286.7 (last price at 306.2), which is equivalent to a -6.4% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

2.7% (January-2022), -5.4% (January-2021), 16.1% (January-2020), 7.1% (January-2019), 7.2% (January-2018), 2.8% (January-2017), 8.1% (January-2016), 6.9% (January-2015), 7.3% (January-2014), 8.2% (January-2013)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameVanEck Semiconductor ETF
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.5
Target+7.2%
Time2 months
Hit Rate90%

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