Score 8.6 (out of 10): ADOBE INC poised to seasonally rally by +12.7% during the next 90 days.

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What’s Going On Here?

According to ADOBE’s Digital Economy Index, US consumers almost spent $11bn in online shopping on Cyber Monday. Estimates were slightly higher at $11.3bn. Some consumers have spread out e-commerce spending across the months of October and November due to growing awareness of supply chain challenges and product availability.

Why Now?

ADOBE INC indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, ADOBE INC shares had a median return of +12.7% – based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80%). This buy signal for ADOBE INC received a high score of 8.6 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 671.88.

What’s This Company About?

ADOBE INC is in the Electronic Forms business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 7.2% more (average). Ticker symbol: ADBE US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 757.01 (+12.7%) has been reached. Based on ADOBE INC’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 627.38 (last price at 671.88), which is equivalent to a -6.6% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-2.3% (December-2021), 11.4% (December-2020), 6.3% (December- 2019), 16.1% (December-2018), 19% (December-2017), -6.1% (December-2016), 8.3% (December-2015), 22.3% (December-2014), 13.9% (December-2013), 21.1% (December-2012)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameADOBE INC
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.6
Target+12.7%
Time90 days
Hit Rate80%

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