Score 8.6 (out of 10): CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF poised to seasonally rally by +6% during the next 90 days.

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What’s Going On Here?

Consumer stocks might benefit from consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions which were more favourable in January compared to the previous month. 21.1% of consumers said business conditions were ‘good’ which was higher than previous month of 19.4%. However expectations for future conditions marginally declined.

Why Now?

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF shares had a median return of +6% – based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80%). This buy signal for CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SELT received a high score of 8.6 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 184.4.

What’s This Company About?

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF is in the Leisure Industry business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: XLY US .

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 195.46 (+6%) has been reached. Based on CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 181.9 (last price at 184.4), which is equivalent to a -1.4% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

4.8% (February-2022), -3.6% (February-2021), 10.3% (February-2020), – 1.8% (February-2019), 6.1% (February-2018), 10% (February-2017), 5.9% (February-2016), 4.9% (February-2015), 7.7% (February-2014), 7.8% (February-2013)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameCONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.6
Target+6%
Time90 days
Hit Rate80%

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