Score 8.6 (out of 10): ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES-CL A poised to seasonally rally by +8.4% during the next 90 days.

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What’s Going On Here?

ESTEE LAUDER reported strong quarterly earnings. Net sales increased +23% while the quarterly dividend was raised by 13% to $0.60 cents. The company has cut its full year sales forecast as supply chain issues continue to bite. ESTEE LAUDER will hold its annual meeting on November 12.

Why Now?

ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES-CL A indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES-CL A shares had a median return of +8.4% – based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80%). This buy signal for ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES-CL A received a high score of 8.6 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 344.41.

What’s This Company About?

ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES-CL A is in the Cosmetics & Toiletries business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Moderate Risk. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 6.4% more (average). Ticker symbol: EL US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 373.48 (+8.4%) has been reached. Based on the stock’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 324.91 (last price at 344.41), which is equivalent to a -5.7% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

13.1% (November-2021), 12.7% (November-2020), 8.8% (November-2019), 8.1% (November-2018), 5.5% (November-2017), 5% (November-2016), 9.7% (November-2015), -5.5% (November-2014), 10.3% (November-2013), – 0.1% (November-2012)

Summary:

Name ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES-CL A
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.6
Target+8.4%
Time90 days
Hit Rate80%

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