Score 8.7 (out of 10): GOLD poised to seasonally rally by +4.8% during the next 30 days

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What’s Going On Here?

With the December Fed meeting out of the way, GOLD could benefit as the inflationary mindset might persist for a bit longer and as US investors tend to snatch up overseas assets in the beginning of the new year – weakening the US dollar which tends to benefit Gold prices.

Why Now?

SPDR GOLD SHARES indicates an interesting 30 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, SPDR GOLD SHARES had a median return of +4.8% – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for SPDR GOLD SHARES received a high score of 8.7 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 168.97.

What’s This Company About?

SPDR GOLD SHARES is in the Commodity business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: GLD US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 30 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 177.04 (+4.8%) has been reached. Based on SPDR GOLD SHARES’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 165.17 (last price at 168.97), which is equivalent to a -2.2% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-2.1% (December-2021), 4.7% (December-2020), 0.9% (December-2019), 5.7% (December-2018), 4.9% (December-2017), 4.1% (December-2016), 8.8% (December-2015), 5.3% (December- 2014), 0.5% (December-2013), 6.4% (December-2012)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameSPDR GOLD SHARES
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.7
Target+4.8%
Time30 days
Hit Rate90%

Popular Insights:

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