Score 8.8 (out of 10): Gold Spot $/Oz sets up for +1.7% rally in 2 weeks

58

What’s Going On Here?

Gold is often viewed as a hedge against rising price levels. With inflation accelerating in the US, Americans paid more for gasoline and food. In addition, global supply chain issues might keep inflation uncomfortably high well into 2022.

Why Now?

Gold Spot $/Oz has reached a new medium term high. Previously, during similar occasions, Gold Spot $/Oz had a median return of +1.7%, over the following 2 weeks – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90% hit ratio). This buy signal for Gold Spot $/Oz received a high score of 8.8 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-November-10 with last price of 1849.04.

What’s This Commodity About?

Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Moderate Risk. Ticker symbol: Gold.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 weeks to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns), otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 1880.61 (+1.7%) has been reached. Based on the commodity’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering a stop loss level for this insight at 1794.44 (last price at 1849.04), which is equivalent to -3%.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

3.4% (May-2021), 1.5% (June-2020), -0.1% (April-2020), 1.9% (December-2019), 1.1% (June-2019), 0.2% (October-2018), 2.7% (December-2017), 3.2% (August-2017), 2.4% (April-2017), 0.2% (February-2017).

Summary:

NameGold Spot $/Oz
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.8
Target+1.7%
Time2 weeks
Hit Rate90%

Leave a Reply