Score 8.8 (out of 10): SPDR S&P 500 ETF sets up for +3.8% rally in 2 months


What’s Going On Here?

The seasonal positive period is starting, based on our backtested results – coinciding with a potential dovish pivot by Fed members. Investors could soon be bargain hunting.

Why Now?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST has triggered a new price range signal. During similar occasions, SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST shares had a median return of +3.8%, over the following 2 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST received a high score of 8.8 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-October-25 with last price of 384.92.

What’s This Asset About?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST is in the Growth&Income-Large Cap business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: SPY US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 399.41 (+3.8%) has been reached. Based on SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 372.02 (last price at 384.92), which is equivalent to a -3.4% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

-2.3% (July-2022), 1.7% (August-2021), 4.6% (June-2021), 4% (March-2021), 2.2% (December-2020), 3.9% (September-2020), 2.3% (July-2020), 6.3% (April-2020), 6.9% (November-2019), 3.6% (July-2019).

Historical Chart:


Star (1 to 10)8.8
Time2 months
Hit Rate90%

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