Score 8.9 (out of 10): TENCENT’s ADR poised to seasonally rally by +14.8% during the next 60 days


What’s Going On Here?

TENCENT will distribute $16.4bn as a special dividend to its shareholders as the company will sell its holdings in A move, in response to Bejing’s antitrust demands, could see Tencent becoming a neutral infrastructure service provider, resulting in further divestments in Tencent’s holdings across the internet landscape.

Why Now?

TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD-UNS ADR indicates an interesting 60 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD-UNS ADR shares had a median return of +14.8% – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD-UNS ADR received a high score of 8.9 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 60.26.

What’s This Company About?

TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD-UNS ADR is in the Internet Content-Info/Ne business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 32.5% more (average). Ticker symbol: 700 HK.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 60 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 69.18 (+14.8%) has been reached. Based on TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD-UNS ADR’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 55.36 (last price at 60.26), which is equivalent to a -8.1% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

23.5% (December- 2021), 2.9% (December-2020), 13.4% (December-2019), 12.4% (December-2018), 16.2% (December-2017), -7.7% (December-2016), 19% (December-2015), 22.3% (December-2014), 8.6% (December-2013), 24.5% (December-2012)

Historical Chart:



Star (1 to 10)8.9
Time60 days
Hit Rate90%

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