Score 8 (out of 10): VALERO ENERGY sets up for +10.7% rally in 1 month

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What’s Going On Here?

Oil refiners including Valero Energy are the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. government’s oil reserve releases, taking nearly half the crude offered.

Why Now?

VALERO ENERGY has reached a new shorter-term high. Previously, during similar occasions, VALERO ENERGY shares had a median return of +10.7%, over the following 1 month – based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80% hit ratio). This buy signal for VALERO ENERGY received a high score of 8 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-October-4 with last price of 117.58.

What’s This Token About?

VALERO ENERGY is in the Oil Refining&Marketing business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: VLO US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 130.19 (+10.7%) has been reached. Based on VALERO ENERGY’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 111.08 (last price at 117.58), which is equivalent to a -5.5% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

10.3% (July-2022), 14.6% (March-2022), 11.2% (December-2021), 21.9% (September-2021), 9.4% (April-2021), 9.1% (December-2020), 19.5% (October-2020), -6.4% (July-2020), 25.7% (March-2020), -12% (December- 2019).

Historical Chart:

Summary:

NameVALERO ENERGY
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)8.0
Target10.7%
Time1 month
Hit Rate80%

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