Score 9.1 (out of 10): ADOBE poised to seasonally rally by +10.0% during the next 90 days

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What’s Going On Here?

According to Wall Street analysts, Adobe might have +25% upside in 2022. An ‘Adobe’ board member (Laura Desmond) has just increased her ownership ($15mln seems to be her total holdings) – usually this is a sign of confidence that the current share price offers a good entry level.

Why Now?

ADOBE INC indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, ADOBE INC shares had a median return of +10% – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for ADOBE INC received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 529.89.

What’s This Company About?

ADOBE INC is in the Electronic Forms business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Moderate Risk. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 25.5% more (average). Ticker symbol: ADBE US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 582.87 (+10%) has been reached. Based on ADOBE INC’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 478.49 (last price at 529.89), which is equivalent to a -9.7% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

7.1% (January-2022), -3.1% (January-2021), 13.7% (January-2020), 17.2% (January-2019), 18% (January-2018), 6.3% (January-2017), 5.4% (January-2016), 5.3% (January-2015), 12.9% (January-2014), 14.6% (January-2013)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameAdobe
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.1
Target+10.0%
Time3 months
Hit Rate90%

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