Score 9.1 (out of 10): MICROSOFT poised to seasonally rally by +4% during the month of
November

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What’s Going On Here?

Microsoft surpassed expectations on the top and bottom lines, but the stock was pressured by weak guidance and cloud revenue that missed expectations. CEO Satya Nadella said on a conference call with analysts that cyclical trends are affecting Microsoft’s consumer business. Looking beyond the near-term dynamics, analysts believe there is potential for revenue reacceleration next year.

Why Now?

MICROSOFT indicates an interesting seasonal (monthly for November) set up. During similar occasions, MICROSOFT shares had a median return of +4%, over the following 1 month – based on 9 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (89%). This buy signal for MICROSOFT received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 235.87.

What’s This Asset About?

MICROSOFT is in the Applications Software sector. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: MSFT US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 245.19 (+4%) has been reached. Based on MICROSOFT’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 223.27 (last price at 235.87), which is equivalent to a -5.3% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

0% (November-2021), 6.2% (November-2020), 5.8% (November-2019), 4.6% (November-2018), 1.7% (November-2017), 1.4% (November-2016), 4% (November-2015), 2.5% (November-2014), 8.3% (November-2013)

Historical Chart:

Summary:

NameMICROSOFT
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.1
Target+4%
Time1 month
Hit Rate89%

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