Score 9.1 (out of 10): NETFLIX INC sets up for +20.2% rally in 3 months

93

What’s Going On Here?

NETFLIX has come out with a gloomy forecast about subscriber growth while costs for content creation continues to increase. The company projected 2.5 million new subscribers in Q1 while analysts expected 5.9 million. The result was a sharp decline in Netflix’s stock price.

Why Now?

NETFLIX INC has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, NETFLIX INC shares had a median return of +20.2%, over the following 3 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 10 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for NETFLIX INC received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-January-21 with last price of 397.5.

What’s This Company About?

NETFLIX INC is in the Internet Content-Entmnt business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: NFLX US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 3 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 477.83 (+20.2%) has been reached. Based on NETFLIX INC’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 395 (last price at 397.5), which is equivalent to a -0.6% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

9.7% (May-2020), 19.2% (March-2020), 53.9% (December-2018), 6.7% (October-2018), 37.9% (April-2018), 31.8% (February-2018), 6.9% (August-2015), 44.2% (April-2015), 21.2% (January-2015), 12.5% (October-2014).

Historical Chart:

———————————————————————

Summary:

NameNETFLIX INC
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.1
Target+20.2%
Time3 months
Hit Rate100%

Popular Insights:

Leave a Reply