Score 9.1 (out of 10): NETFLIX poised to seasonally rally by +9.5% during the next 60 days.

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What’s Going On Here?

Netflix has recently revealed its annual revenue from UK subscribers for the first time – £1.4bn in 2021 – after changing its accounting practices. Netflix’s main UK business also reported a 1,630% increase in revenues last year, up from only £79m in 2020.

Why Now?

NETFLIX indicates an interesting 60 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, NETFLIX shares had a median return of +9.5% – based on 9 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for NETFLIX received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 229.98.

What’s This Asset About?

NETFLIX is in the Internet Content-Entmnt business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: NFLX US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 60 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 251.93 (+9.5%) has been reached. Based on NETFLIX’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 215.18 (last price at 229.98), which is equivalent to a -6.4% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

12.1% (November-2021), 4.1% (November-2020), 1% (November-2019), 13% (November-2018), 8.8% (November-2017), 8.3% (November-2016), 10.4% (November-2015), 10.2% (November-2014), 20.5% (November-2013)

Historical Chart:

Summary:

NameNETFLIX
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.1
Target+9.5%
Time60 days
Hit Rate100%

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