Score 9.1 (out of 10): NVIDIA poised to seasonally rally by +7.0% during the next 30 days

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What’s Going On Here?

Nvidia appears to be abandoning its $40 billion takeover of Arm. The deal has faced close scrutiny from regulators around the world, who worry it would give Nvidia an unfair advantage in the semiconductor industry.

Why Now?

NVIDIA CORP indicates an interesting 30 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, NVIDIA CORP shares had a median return of +7% – based on 10 historical occasions with 10 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for NVIDIA CORP received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 233.74.

What’s This Company About?

NVIDIA CORP is in the Electronic Compo-Semicon business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: NVDA US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 30 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 250.19 (+7%) has been reached. Based on NVIDIA CORP’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 231.24 (last price at 233.74), which is equivalent to a -1.1% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

6.3% (January-2022), 22.3% (January-2021), 2.9% (January-2020), 6.1% (January-2019), 6.7% (January-2018), 14.9% (January-2017), 11.6% (January-2016), 16.4% (January-2015), 1.9% (January-2014), 7.3% (January-2013)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameNvidia
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.1
Target+7.0%
Time30 days
Hit Rate100%

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