Score 9.1 (out of 10): S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF poised to seasonally rally by +3.9% during the next 30 days


What’s Going On Here?

7% mortgage rates are hurting home buyers. But Homebuilders are expected to seasonally weather the storm, according to our models. This might be a buying opportunity.

Why Now?

SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF indicates an interesting 30 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF shares had a median return of +3.9% – based on 9 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 57.77.

What’s This Asset About?

SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF is in the Sector Fund-Real Estate business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: XHB US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 30 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 60.02 (+3.9%) has been reached. Based on SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 54.97 (last price at 57.77), which is equivalent to a -4.8% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

6.2% (November-2021), 6.2% (November-2020), 0.8% (November-2019), 7% (November-2018), 3.3% (November-2017), 4.5% (November-2016), 2.1% (November-2015), 8.8% (November-2014), 2.8% (November-2013)

Historical Chart:


NameSPDR Homebuilders ETF
Star (1 to 10)9.1
Time30 days
Hit Rate100%

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