Score 9.1 (out of 10): TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR poised to seasonally rally by +10.7% during the next 60 days.


What’s Going On Here?

TAIWAN SEMI (TSMC) continues to expand overseas and is expected to open a new manufacturing capacity in Germany. The company has also just received the approval to open another $7bn chip plant in Japan – with Sony Group. TSMC is one of the key beneficiaries of the chip shortage.

Why Now?

TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR indicates an interesting 60 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR shares had a median return of +10.7% – based on 10 historical occasions with 10 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 117.44.

What’s This Company About?

TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR is in the Semicon Compo-Intg Circu business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 21.7% more (average). Ticker symbol: 2330 TT.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 60 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 130.05 (+10.7%) has been reached. Based on TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 110.14 (last price at 117.44), which is equivalent to a -6.2% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

25.6% (December-2021), 0.3% (December-2020), 6.6% (December-2019), 11.1% (December-2018), 10.7% (December-2017), 4.3% (December-2016), 10.8% (December-2015), 4.5% (December- 2014), 11.8% (December-2013), 14.8% (December-2012)

Historical Chart:



Star (1 to 10)9.1
Time60 days
Hit Rate100%

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