Score 9.1 (out of 10): TECH ETF SPDR poised to seasonally rally by +4.9% during the month of Nov

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What’s Going On Here?

Tech companies are releasing their earnings, which appear to be disappointing the analyst expectations. However, share buyback programs will restart soon, potentially supporting the shares.

Why Now?

TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECT SPDR indicates an interesting seasonal (monthly for November) set up. During similar occasions, TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECT SPDR shares had a median return of +4.9%, over the following 1 month – based on 9 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (89%). This buy signal for TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECT SPDR received a high score of 9.1 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 128.47.

What’s This Asset About?

TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECT SPDR is in the Sector Fund-Technology sector.  Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: XLK US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 134.75 (+4.9%) has been reached. Based on TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECT SPDR’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 123.57 (last price at 128.47), which is equivalent to a -3.8% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

5.9% (November-2021), 5.3% (November-2020), 6.2% (November-2019), 10.4% (November-2018), 4.9% (November-2017), 4.1% (November-2016), 3.6% (November-2015), -0.2% (November-2014), 1% (November-2013)

Historical Chart:

Summary:

NameTech ETF XLK SPDR
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.1
Target+4.9%
Time1 month
Hit Rate89%

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