Score 9.2 (out of 10): ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR sets up for +9.4% rally in 1 month

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What’s Going On Here?

Chinese e-commerce giant ALIBABA is expected to release earnings on Feb 8. Expectations for revenue and earnings growth are low, allowing the company to potentially beat estimates. Large EPS revisions by Wall-Street analysts ahead of the numbers could force them to revise up their numbers if ALIBABA delivers above expectations.

Why Now?

ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR shares had a median return of +9.4%, over the following 1 month – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR received a high score of 9.2 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-February-4 with last price of 122.22.

What’s This Company About?

ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR is in the E-Commerce/Products business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth +54% (average). Ticker symbol: BABA US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 133.71 (+9.4%) has been reached. Based on ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 119.72 (last price at 122.22), which is equivalent to a -2% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-2% (December-2021), 4.3% (March-2021), 16.5% (December-2020), 9.1% (May-2020), 7.7% (March-2020), 12.8% (December-2018), 19.5% (October- 2018), 9.7% (April-2018), 7.2% (February-2018), 15.8% (August-2017).

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.2
Target+9.4%
Time1 month
Hit Rate90%

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