Score 9.3 (out of 10): MICROSOFT CORP poised to seasonally rally by +11.3% during the next 90 days.

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What’s Going On Here?

Microsoft has released strong earnings and the company’s revenue forecast has spurred a relief rally. This is another sign that some of the top companies are well positioned and can weather supply shortages and / or perform well during rising inflation expectations. Apple and Tesla have both released strong earnings as well.

Why Now?

MICROSOFT CORP indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, MICROSOFT CORP shares had a median return of +11.3% – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for MICROSOFT CORP received a high score of 9.3 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 308.26.

What’s This Company About?

MICROSOFT CORP is in the Applications Software business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: MSFT US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 343.1 (+11.3%) has been reached. Based on MICROSOFT CORP’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 305.76 (last price at 308.26), which is equivalent to a -0.8% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

12.4% (January-2022), 12% (January-2021), 15.8% (January-2020), -0.5% (January-2019), 3.2% (January-2018), 2.7% (January- 2017), 12.6% (January-2016), 10.6% (January-2015), 13.6% (January-2014), 7% (January-2013)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameMICROSOFT CORP
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.3
Target+11.3%
Time90 days
Hit Rate90%

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