Score 9.4 (out of 10): PROGRESSIVE CORP poised to seasonally rally by +9.3% during the next 90 days.

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What’s Going On Here?

The Progressive Corp is an American insurance company, the third largest insurance carrier and the No. 1 commercial auto insurer in the United States. Net income for the full year was about $3.35 billion, a 41% drop from about $5.7 billion in 2020, while net premiums written increased 14%. The insurer plans to release January results on Feb. 16 and has scheduled an earnings call with analysts for Match 1.

Why Now?

PROGRESSIVE CORP indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, PROGRESSIVE CORP shares had a median return of +9.3% – based on 10 historical occasions with 10 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for PROGRESSIVE CORP received a high score of 9.4 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 108.72.

What’s This Company About?

PROGRESSIVE CORP is in the Property/Casualty Ins business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: PGR US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 118.79 (+9.3%) has been reached. Based on PROGRESSIVE CORP’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 106.22 (last price at 108.72), which is equivalent to a -2.3% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

14.3% (January- 2022), 11.7% (January-2021), 14.4% (January-2020), 10.3% (January-2019), 5.2% (January-2018), 8.3% (January-2017), 0.9% (January-2016), 3.5% (January-2015), 11.6% (January-2014), 3.3% (January-2013)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NamePROGRESSIVE CORP
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.4
Target+9.3%
Time90 days
Hit Rate100%

Popular Insights:

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