Score 9.5 (out of 10): POOL poised to seasonally rally by +11.6% during the next 90 days

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What’s Going On Here?

Pool Corporation is the world’s largest wholesale distributor of swimming pools and related backyard products. Earnings are expected to be released on Feb 17 with expectations sitting at $1.97 per share vs. just $1.45 a year ago. This would be a nice improvement.

Why Now?

POOL CORP indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, POOL CORP shares had a median return of +11.6% – based on 10 historical occasions with 10 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for POOL CORP received a high score of 9.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 452.17.

What’s This Company About?

POOL CORP is in the Distribution/Wholesale business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: POOL US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 504.49 (+11.6%) has been reached. Based on POOL CORP’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 449.67 (last price at 452.17), which is equivalent to a -0.6% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

20.2% (February-2022), 2.8% (February-2021), 16.8% (February-2020), 11.8% (February-2019), 12.9% (February-2018), 13.1% (February- 2017), 1.5% (February-2016), 9.9% (February-2015), 11.3% (February-2014), 6.3% (February-2013)

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NamePOOL CORP
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.5
Target+11.6%
Time90 days
Hit Rate100%

Popular Insights:

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