Score 9.5 (out of 10): SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST sets up for +4.9% rally in 2 months


What’s Going On Here?

Equities have been struggling with on-going Russia / Ukraine conflict stories as well as higher inflation expectations which are currently driving the debate around Fed rate hikes. According to the historical playbook (and the “data”), spikes in volatility have tended to be good buying opportunities.

Why Now?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST shares had a median return of +4.9%, over the following 2 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST received a high score of 9.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-February-23 with last price of 421.97.

What’s This Company About?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST is in the Growth&Income-Large Cap business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: SPY US

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 442.77 (+4.9%) has been reached. Based on SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 410.65 (last price at 421.95), which is equivalent to a -2.7% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-1% (December-2021), 4.8% (May-2020), 3% (March-2020), 4.4% (December-2018), 5.1% (April-2018), 4.7% (February-2018), 6.2% (October-2015), 6.8% (August-2015), 5.1% (February-2015), 8.6% (December-2014).

Historical Chart:



Star (1 to 10)9.5
Time2 months
Hist Rate90%

Popular Insights:

INFOSYS has denied that the company is launching a crypto project. But the company continues to expand aggressively in Costa Rico. ‘Wall Street’ analysts’ think the shares will rally +22% over the next 12 months.

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