Score 9.5 (out of 10): VANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF sets up for +4.7% rally in 2 months

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What’s Going On Here?

Since early November, the black-out period for corporate buy backs has ended as companies tend to hold off with buying back their own shares from the open market during the earnings season. A resumption tends to benefit large cap indices and ETFs, such as the VANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF – as the name says, it focuses on the large cap names which tend to have the largest free cash flow yield and the most active buy back programs.

Why Now?

VANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF has triggered a new volatility signal (1 month). During similar occasions, VANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF shares had a median return of +4.7%, over the following 2 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for VANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF received a high score of 9.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-November-15 with last price of 218.92.

What’s This Company About?

VANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF is in the Growth&Income-Large Cap business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth -100% less (average). Ticker symbol: VV US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 229.31 (+4.7%) has been reached. Based on VANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 214.42 (last price at 218.92), which is equivalent to a -2.1% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

3.2% (September-2021), 4.6% (July- 2021), 4.7% (May-2021), 5.9% (December-2020), 5.4% (November-2019), 0.7% (April-2019), 4.8% (October-2017), -0.3% (June-2017), 5.5% (January-2017), 5.1% (October-2016).

Summary:

NameVANGUARD LARGE-CAP ETF
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.5
Target+4.7%
Time2 months
Hit Rate90%

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