Score 9.6 (out of 10): ALPHABET (Google) sets up for +11.1% rally in 2 months

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What’s Going On Here?

Alphabet (Google) has released earnings beat across the board. Revenue +32% YoY, Services +31%, Cloud +45% YoY, while operating income increased +40% YoY. Operating margins increased from 28% to 29%, beating estimates of 28.8% while capital expenditure was lower at $6.38bn vs. estimates of $7.42. The company also announced a 20-for-One stock split.

Why Now?

ALPHABET INC-CL C has reached a new shorter-term high. Previously, during similar occasions, ALPHABET INC-CL C shares had a median return of +11.1%, over the following 2 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90% hit ratio). This buy signal for ALPHABET INC-CL C received a high score of 9.6 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-February-2 with last price of 2960.73.

What’s This Company About?

ALPHABET INC-CL C is in the Web Portals/ISP business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth +19.7% (average). Ticker symbol: GOOGL US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 3288.74 (+11.1%) has been reached. Based on ALPHABET INC-CL C’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 2958.23 (last price at 2960.73), which is equivalent to a -0.1% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

-0.1% (October-2021), 12% (July-2021), 13.3% (April-2021), 15% (January-2021), 13.6% (October-2020), 6.4% (July-2020), 16.1% (April-2020), 10.1% (December-2019), 6.6% (September-2019), 6.9% (July-2019).

Historical Chart:

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Summary:

NameALPHABET (GOOGLE)
ViewUp
Star (1 to 10)9.6
Target+11.1%
Time2 months
Hit Rate90%

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