Score 9.9 (out of 10): SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST sets up for +5.2% rally in 2 months


What’s Going On Here?

Apple has topped analysts’ sales and profit estimates as the company has handled chip shortages particularly well and estimates shortages are easing. This could be a big turnaround for the overall market as the key driver behind the Fed’s rate hike expectations appears to be the on-going inflation expectations which are driven by supply shortages. We heard similar comments from Tesla when the EV manufacturer announced their earnings a few days ago.

Why Now?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST shares had a median return of +5.2%, over the following 2 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 10 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST received a high score of 9.3 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022- January-28 with last price of 441.95.

What’s This Company About?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST is in the Growth&Income-Large Cap business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: SPY US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 2 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 464.9 (+5.2%) has been reached. Based on SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 439.45 (last price at 441.95), which is equivalent to a -0.6% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ shown under (2), etc. 

Previous episodes:

3.1% (May-2020), 2.3% (March-2020), 5.3% (December-2018), 2.1% (April- 2018), 5% (February-2018), 5.4% (October-2015), 7.2% (August-2015), 2.8% (February-2015), 8% (December-2014), 12.7% (October-2014).

Historical Chart:



Star (1 to 10)9.9
Time2 months
Hit Rate100%

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