Score 9 (out of 10): SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST poised to seasonally rally by +4.1% during the next 60 days.


What’s Going On Here?

US stocks tend to rally over the next four weeks. Inflation was just revised lower, according to the University of Michigan, potentially implying less aggressive hikes.

Why Now?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST indicates an interesting 60 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST shares had a median return of +4.1% – based on 9 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (100%). This buy signal for SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST received a high score of 9 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 390.08.

What’s This Company About?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST is in the Growth&Income-Large Cap business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Moderate Risk. Ticker symbol: SPY US.

What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?

We found 60 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 406.1 (+4.1%) has been reached. Based on SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 374.48 (last price at 390.08), which is equivalent to a -4% decline.

Returns during similar periods:

The chart above shows the previous returns (in %) based on similar setups with the most recent ‘insight’ shown under (1), the second most recent ‘insight’ under (2), etc.

Previous episodes:

5.5% (June-2021), 7.7% (June-2020), 5.5% (June-2019), 2.7% (June-2018), 4.5% (June-2017), 3.7% (June-2016), 0.4% (June-2015), 1.4% (June-2014), 7.2% (June-2013)

Historical Chart:


Star (1 to 10)9.0
Time60 days
Hit Rate100%


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